forex update: October 2009

oday's Forex Strategy

JPY crosses reversing higher again after better than expected US growth data. USD backs off as well.

Recent moves likely to climax between now and Monday with end of month trade behind us at week-end.

Pakistan’s economy is showing a gradual recovery and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be close to the target of 3.3 percent during the current fiscal year (2009-10), according to State Bank’s Annual Report on State of the Economy for the year 2008-09 released Thursday.

Infinity Brokerage Services Inc.

Infinity Brokerage Services is an Independent brokerage and investment firm headquartered in Chicago , Illinois . Founded in 1996, Infinity has been providing customers from around the world access to the global derivatives markets. Whether you are interested in online trading facilities or access to top managed programs, Infinity offers a suite of state-of-the-art programs tailored to individual customer needs.

The FLEXI Contract, offered by Infinity Brokerage Services, allows you to choose a contract size which best suits your own individual currency trading style.
1k FLEXI Contract = 1,000 Units
5k FLEXI Contract = 5,000 Units
10k FLEXI Contract = 10,000 Units ("Mini" Contract)
50k FLEXI Contract = 50,000 Units
100k FLEXI Contract = 100,000 Units ("Standard" Contract)

BROKER INFO

Pip spread (most popular pairs):

3-4

Commissions:

Demo Trading:

Yes

Trading Platform:

Global Trading System (GTS)
- Faster Response Time
- Windows Based Platform
- Minimum Computer Resource Usage
- Customized Currency Pair Selection
- Best Charting System Eliminates Error Input
- Highly Encrypted File Transfer Protocol Ensures Maximum Security
- Multiple Order Capability permits 5 different stop or limit orders
- Advanced Managed Account Administrative Functions

Regulated:

NFA, CFTC (USA)

CONTACTS

Institutional Sales:

One South Wacker Drive, Suite 3875
Chicago, IL. 60606

General number:

(312) 373.6220

Toll Free:

(800) 322.8559

Fax number:

(312) 373.6256

E-mail:

Send an e-mail

Company URL:

www.infinitybrokerage.com

FOREX.com

24-hr commission-free trading in 14+ currency pairs. Web-based trading platform requires no download or installation. Guaranteed fills on stops and limits up to $2M. No debit balance guarantee. Free access to charting, news, and research. 24-hour customer support via phone, email and chat. Wireless trading available. Dollar, Euro and Yen deposits accepted.

BROKER INFO

Languages:

English, Chinese, Russian

Minimum account:

$250 mini / $2500 standard

Minimum trade:

10,000 USD

Pip spread (most popular pairs):

3-5

Commissions:

Trading Software:

FOREXTrader and FOREXTrader.web

Regulated:

NFA/CFTC. FOREX.com is an affiliate of GAIN Capital Group (NFA ID#0310775)

CONTACTS

Headquarters:

USA

Phone number:

1.908.731.0750

Fax number:

1.908.731.0701

E-mail:

info@forex.com

Company URL:

www.forex.com

CFOS/FX division of Commodity, Futures, and Options Service, Inc. (CFOS)

CFOS/FX
CFOS/FX is the over-the-counter foreign currency ("forex") trading and forex brokerage division of Commodity, Futures, and Options Service, Inc. (CFOS), an Independent Introducing Broker in the cash and futures commodity markets with offices in Houston, TX, Sacramento, CA, Salt Lake City, UT, New York City, NY and Madeira Beach, FL.

CFOS/FX was established to provide clients with forex trading and forex brokerage services in over-the-counter (OTC) foreign currency markets, and offers state-of-the-art online forex trading platforms for both forex spot and forex options markets.

CFOS/FX offers a variety of account plans, investment products, and services to choose from when creating or re-adjusting a portfolio, and the professionals at CFOS/FX can tailor a commodity investment portfolio based on an individual customer's short and long-term investment objectives.

BROKER INFO
Free demo account: Yes
# Trading Software: ACC'T Live Streaming Quotes
# Fixed Spreads
# Free News, Charts & Research
# No Commissions or Fees
# No Dealer Intervention
Regulated: NFA (USA)
CONTACTS
Headquarters: CFOS/FX
2425 West Loop South, Suite 601 Houston, TX 77027
Telephone: 1-877-423-6739 (Toll Free U.S.)

713-622-7774 (Local)
Company URL: www.cfosfx.com

Intervention Fears Set Brazilian Real Down

The Brazilian real, ranking among the best performers in currency markets this year with the Australian and New Zealand dollar, experienced another day of losses as the government may take further action to halt the current national currency rally. The Brazilian real suffered another day of pessimism as speculations suggest that the national central bank could be ready to take further measures, after setting a tax for international capital inflows towards Brazilian equities markets last week, declining attractiveness for the real as fears that a good currency performance may be once synthetically halted by policy makers. USD/BRL traded at 1.7205 as of 21:25 GMT from an opening rate of 1.7178 today.

Pound Pares Losses After Exaggerated Rally

The pound reverted its losing trend from last week�s end, specially versus the euro, as traders interpreted the winning streak as inadequate, as U.K. could be starting its first signs of economic recovery. The pound has been facing extreme volatility as investors remain confused regarding the directions it may take in currency markets, considering the actual conjecture of the British financial scenario. Today, the pound rose specially versus the euro, as even if the U.K. posted negative growth numbers last week, analysts suggest that next quarter will bring back optimism towards the United Kingdom�s economy. EUR/GBP traded at 0.9109 as of 21:45 GMT from a previous rate of 0.9235 yesterday.

Karachi Stock Exchange

K.S.E. Indices

KSE 30 INDEX

KSE 100 INDEX

ALL SHARE INDEX

Current

9770.23

9247.78

6577.75

High

10126.37

9569.07

6798.31

Low

9747.16

9232.18

6568.97

Change

-356.14

-321.29

-220.56

Volume

134,624,775

177,517,995

204,289,220

Value

8,287,126,946.31

8,890,268,828.76

9,267,451,454.82

KSE 100 INDEX

Exchange Statistics

Trades

118,312

Advance

Decline

305

Unchanged

Total

400

Exchange Volume

206,284,720

Exchange Value

9,456,410,894.82

Market Statistics

Regular (Suspend)

Trades : 117,190

Volume : 204,289,220

Value : 9,267,451,454.82

CFS (Loaded)

Trades : 0

Volume : 0

Value : 0.00

Square Up (OpenClose)

Trades : 4

Volume : 11,461

Value : 336,251.48

Odd Lot ( )

Trades :

Volume :

Value :

CSF (Suspend)

Trades : 0

Volume : 0

Value : 0.00

Future (Suspend)

Trades : 1,122

Volume : 1,995,500

Value : 188,959,440.00

IPO (Suspend)

Trades : 0

Volume : 0

Value : 0.00

K.S.E. Top Symbols

Symbol Bid Vol. Bid Price Offer Price Offer Vol. Last Rate Change Total Vol.

Pak.PTA Ltd. 13,000 6.00 6.02 2,018 6.02

0.15

24,736,388

Arif Habib Sec. 124,288 51.90 51.99 46,089 51.44

1.07

22,965,698

Jah.Sidd. Co. 0 0.00 37.11 448,646 37.14

-1.92

17,226,568

Fauji Fert Bin Qasim 26,955 26.75 26.78 14,350 26.83

-0.08

14,466,167

Bank Al-Falah 10,500 14.15 14.16 25,000 14.09

-0.56

13,096,641

D.G.K.Cement 0 0.00 30.07 285,036 30.07

-1.58

7,829,034

P.T.C.L.A 9,060 19.41 19.50 10,000 19.50

-0.93

7,011,905

National Bank of Pak 12,120 82.30 82.44 1,000 81.95

-3.39

5,514,212

Lucky Cement XD 0 0.00 67.42 294,513 67.42

-3.54

5,449,756

Oil and Gas Deve.XD 790 104.61 104.65 1,175 104.78

-3.39

5,050,993

Netsol Technol. 1,400 33.69 33.70 4,260 33.42

0.98

5,007,874

Azgard Nine Ltd. 0 0.00 25.08 65,298 25.08

-1.32

4,173,334

Pak Petroleum Ltd. 6,462 177.06 177.25 4,950 177.32

-7.53

4,124,059

NIB Bank 176 5.45 5.47 19,800 5.43

-0.30

4,047,118

United Bank Ltd. 5,500 61.75 61.94 1,000 62.17

-1.37

3,937,411

Hub Power Co. 1,696 30.80 31.00 2,750 31.01

-1.21

2,985,981

Engro Chem.Pak 290 164.25 164.49 1,723 164.26

-8.40

2,876,272

Pak OilfieldsXD 7,426 203.50 203.75 1,000 203.18

-9.39

2,751,513

Adamjee Insur XD 100 108.94 108.98 15 108.95

-2.81

2,556,337

Nishat Mills SPOT 0 0.00 0.00 0 61.11

-3.04

2,222,333

Engro Polymer 1 20.51 20.56 1,600 20.52

-1.06

2,069,534

TRG Pakistan Ltd. 80,861 2.10 2.12 990 2.13

-0.04

2,043,382

MCB Bank Limited 2,290 208.52 208.70 2,700 208.91

-10.23

2,037,230

Pak Reinsurance 7,113 30.05 30.15 7,636 30.02

-1.55

1,956,892

Faysal Bank Ltd. 23,880 17.30 17.34 200 17.24

-0.51

1,764,322

Askari Bank Ltd. 10,000 24.82 24.88 3,673 24.84

-0.90

1,654,936

Habib Bank Ltd 4,000 128.40 128.50 5,975 128.81

-1.62

1,538,653

Pace (Pak) Ltd. 560 6.61 6.66 500 6.62

-0.30

1,535,235

B.O.Punjab 10 14.23 14.25 19,962 14.30

-0.67

1,526,842

Fauji Fertilizer Co. 1,000 102.91 102.98 1,500 102.94

-1.18

1,518,834

Oil rises above $80 as earnings beat expectations

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose above $80 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, extending a two-week rally as better than expected US corporate earnings boosted investor confidence. Benchmark crude for November delivery rose as much as 44 cents to $80.05 a barrel but later fell back and was up 20 cents at $79.81 by midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.08 to settle at $79.61 on Monday. Crude reached $80 for the first time this year after Apple Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. reported third quarter earnings Monday that beat analyst forecasts. Caterpillar Inc., Coca-Cola Co. and DuPont are scheduled to report later Tuesday. "Earnings have been fairly positive and everyone is looking for positives right now," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director for market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. Crude demand has remained sluggish this year as the global economy recovers from recession. With the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at near zero percent, investors have flocked to stocks and commodities to make money. "This rally isnt based on fundamentals. Its about risk appetite," Kornafel said. "Money is looking for some kind of return." In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 0.62 cent to $2.03 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery slipped 0.48 cent to $1.97 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery jumped 6.2 cents to $4.84 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude for December delivery rose 31 cents to $78.08 on the ICE Futures exchange.

EUR/USD pulls down to 1.5000 on a late downside rally in stocks

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – U.S. markets tumbled in the last hour of trading and lost previous gains and ended in the negative side. The Dow Jones lost 0.92% and finished below 10,000. Falling stocks helped Dollar move away from the lows of the days across the board but still remains at the lowest level in 14 months.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.5046 (14-month high) and from there fall quickly to test levels below 1.5000. The pair is now hovering around 1.5000, 0.45% above today’s opening price. If the pair falls further the next support lies at 1.4980 and below at 1.4955/50.

The ecPulse.com analysis team affirms: “Despite optimism spread within overall markets due to cheerful earnings posted today from huge and known U.S corporations; having in fact Yahoo! Inc. and Morgan Stanley witnessing better-than forecasted results throughout their third-quarter, the U.S stocks end up in a red zone after that Wells Fargo & Co. after analyst Dick Bove downgraded Wells Fargo shares and signaled that the better than expected profits were a result of hedging gains rather than increased activity in businesses.”

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price.

Pakistan Forex Scandal Update

Will the Dollar Rebound Before 2009 Ends?

The dollar had one of the best weekly performance in months gaining versus most of the 16 main traded currencies as the Group of 7 suggested that a strong greenback is important to guarantee a fast and sustainable world economic recovery.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Yesterday's drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called "the most important support" 89.31 (yesterday's low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short
-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt).

If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over.