http://www.forex.pk/open_market_rates.asp

As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61 successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could create a correction from here.
That is why we prefer to wait for a break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28, which would be an important test if it happens.

EUR/USD pulls down to 1.5000 on a late downside rally in stocks

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – U.S. markets tumbled in the last hour of trading and lost previous gains and ended in the negative side. The Dow Jones lost 0.92% and finished below 10,000. Falling stocks helped Dollar move away from the lows of the days across the board but still remains at the lowest level in 14 months.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.5046 (14-month high) and from there fall quickly to test levels below 1.5000. The pair is now hovering around 1.5000, 0.45% above today’s opening price. If the pair falls further the next support lies at 1.4980 and below at 1.4955/50.

The ecPulse.com analysis team affirms: “Despite optimism spread within overall markets due to cheerful earnings posted today from huge and known U.S corporations; having in fact Yahoo! Inc. and Morgan Stanley witnessing better-than forecasted results throughout their third-quarter, the U.S stocks end up in a red zone after that Wells Fargo & Co. after analyst Dick Bove downgraded Wells Fargo shares and signaled that the better than expected profits were a result of hedging gains rather than increased activity in businesses.”

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Yesterday's drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called "the most important support" 89.31 (yesterday's low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short
-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt).

If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over.

Gold Darts Past $950/oz in the Wake of Positive Data

The EUR/USD broke out to the upside after positive PMI data, and gold responded. Theprecious metal rode past our 3rd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines on its way to $950/oz. However, Gold’s rally is pausing after better than expected U. S. Existing Home Sales data caused the Dollar to appreciate. Gold is not quite sure which direction to head in with the Dollar appreciating and the S&P futures setting fresh 2009 highs.

Hence, the precious metal is in a correlative flux. Regardless, today’s movement is certainlypositive and shows gold is still in a medium-term uptrend despite recent weakness. That being said, the precious metal must deal with a couple strong technical obstacles to the topside.

EMCO sells its arm to GMR Energy

Thane-headquartered EMCO Limited has informed that it has sold its wholly owned subsidiary EMCO Energy Limited to GMR Energy Limited, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure Limited.

At present, EMCO Energy is in the process of implementing 300 MW thermal power project (Phase 1) at Warora, Maharashtra, as part of the Group's power generation strategy.

CRISIL Risk and Infrastructure Solutions Limited acted as advisors to EMCO Limited for this transaction.

The share of EMCO closed on Friday at Rs 86, while scrip of GMR Infrastructure settled the day at Rs 141 on BSE.

US Dollar on the Brink of a Trend Defining Plunge Ahead of 2Q GDP

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist
It was a tenuous week; but the dollar was able to ultimately hold its own through the close. However, just because momentum behind the earnings-driven rally in risk appetite has stalled does not mean that the world’s most liquid currency has avoided a collapse all together.




US Dollar on the Brink of a Trend Defining Plunge Ahead of 2Q GDP

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bearish

- Fundamentals support a recovery in US and global growth, but how does risk appetite factor in?
- Bernanke sees signs of stabilization, calls focus on the deficit
- Do technicals call for a dollar collapse or recovery?

It was a tenuous week; but the dollar was able to ultimately hold its own through the close. However, just because momentum behind the earnings-driven rally in risk appetite has stalled does not mean that the world’s most liquid currency has avoided a collapse all together. Sentiment winds have died down; but they can easily jostle the safe-haven dollar should another economic catalyst surface. This makes for an uncertain future when combined with the fundamental influence that the 2Q GDP report will have on the currency. Now, not only do traders have to interpret the data, they will also have to judge whether it has a greater impact on risk appetite or growth considerations for the beleaguered dollar.

Looking ahead to next week, the most immediate threat to the greenback’s stability is the intensity and direction of risk appetite. While this currency is deeply mired in speculation surrounding the economy’s leading or lagging growth potential, interest rate expectations, and deficit projections among other influences; risk appetite has proven itself to be insuperable. With the Federal Reserve vowing to keep the benchmark lending rate at levels that insure a carry status when conditions do turn around and politicians ensuring the economy will struggle with record levels of debt for years to come, there seems little doubt that the dollar will maintain its position on the opposite of risk appetite. But, considering the stalled progress most of the dollar and yen crosses saw last week; is there a strong shift in sentiment in the works? With EURUSD and GBPUSD just off of key levels of resistance, the pressure is growing. However, the primary source of momentum this past week – the second quarter earnings season – is already on the decline. If left up to the markets alone, equities have already forged new highs for the year; but commodities, fixed income and risk-sensitive currency pairs have not pushed to comparable levels. Oddly enough, one of the most likely catalysts for risk going forward also happens to be the most attention grabbing indicator on the US docket: GDP.

According to economists forecasts, the world’s largest economy contracted at a 1.5 percent on an annualized pace through the second quarter. This would be a marked improvement from the 5.5 percent and 6.3 percent rate of the recession through the first quarter of 2009 and fourth quarter 2008 respectively. This would certainly confirm policy officials expectations for a return to positive growth by the end of this year or beginning of the next; but through the near-term it is still a call for speculation to rank the economy’s performance against that of its major counterparts. China recently reported a sharp advance to a 7.9 percent pace of expansion while the UK printed a record 5.6 percent contraction. And, then there are still those economies that have yet to report their numbers. Japan suffered a record-breaking 14.2 percent slump through the first quarter, but is expected to snap back according to BoJ and Cabinet officials. The Euro Zone awaits it August 13th release, but the Bundesbank has already stated Germany saw only a ‘slight contraction’ through the second quarter. This will increasingly become a consideration of nuance.

The other facet of the US 2Q GDP release is that it will be accepted as a gauge of global growth. This further complicates the issue. Should the reading be good, the influence on risk appetite could outweigh the implications for US returns and actually drag the dollar down; and vice versa. Another important consideration is the timing of this release. Due Friday, speculators may decide to move the dollar before the data crosses the wires. If this is the case, the GDP report could factor into long-term projections but not short-term volatility. –JK

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Short-term Technical Analysis

Cross Spot level Previous day move (in pips) Supp. Res. Daily target

USD/CHF 1.0729 0.0080 1.0715 1.0780
Daily chart 1.0655 1.0800
Short-term chart 1.0620 1.0860
Comments
As expected, yesterday proved to be a day of range trading on the dollar. The USD/CHF edged up to 1.0769 before US figures were published and then dipped back down to its support zone at 1.0634. Market activity is likely to be stable as we head into the weekend. We remain neutral on the pair and expect to be trading in a range between 1.0600 and 1.0750.

EUR/USD 1.4175 -0.0061 1.4115 1.4215
Daily chart 1.4095 1.4265
Short-term chart 1.4050 1.4290
Comments
Yesterday’s trading saw the EUR/USD seesaw between a low of 1.4120 and a high of 1.4292. The publication today of Germany’s IFO business climate index and of a revised Michigan Sentiment reading in the US is unlikely to disrupt the summer tranquillity on the markets. We will be continuing to play a range between 1.4100 and 1.4250 on the EUR/USD.

USD/JPY 94.81 0.63 94.55 95.40
Daily chart 94.10 95.70
Short-term chart 93.90 95.85
Comments
The EUR/CHF cross rose back above the 1.5200 mark yesterday, on the back of significant acquisitions by Swiss companies. Volatility was considerably higher during the session, with the trading range between a low at 1.5160 and a high at 1.5244. We are expecting to close this week in a range between 1.5175 and 1.5225. We are awaiting publication this morning of the German IFO index.

EUR/CHF 1.5208 0.0045 1.5180 1.5255
Daily chart 1.5150 1.5280
Short-term chart 1.5135 1.5325
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.

GBP/USD 1.6502 0.0022 1.6455 1.6535
Daily chart 1.6430 1.6560
Short-term chart 1.6390 1.6605
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.

UPDATE:Argentina Min: 'Creativity' Needed To Access Credit Mkts

UPDATE:Argentina Min: 'Creativity' Needed To Access Credit Mkts (UPDATES to include comnents on Indec.) BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine government will need a lot of "creativity" to access global credit markets, Economy Minister Amado Boudou said Friday. "We'll need to look for alternatives," Boudou, who replaced former economy minister Carlos Fernandez last week, said in a radio interview. "We have to look at what the best measures are to access the markets. We shouldn't stick with what's traditional." Boudou, who came to the Economy Ministry after heading the social security agency, Anses, said Argentina will maintain its fiscal surplus in 2009. "We're going to take all the measures needed to protect it," he said. Even so, Boudou said nobody should expect the government to "adjust" policies in a way that implies cutting programs or benefits. "That has to be totally discarded," he said. Boudoue also said he planned to "do something" about the national statistics agency, Indec, though he didn't say specifically what he will do. Economists say the agency has been manipulating data - a charge government officials deny. "Indec is part of the president's agenda," he said. "It's part of my agenda, part of the community's agenda." Boudou indicated he will pursue the same kind of policies that have characterized Argentina's government in recent years. "We need to redouble our effort to maintain this course and continue improving the situation," he said. -By Taos Turner, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4103-6728; taos.turner@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=OgBNNDYHfkY7HuExqLXI%2FA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires