http://www.forex.pk/open_market_rates.asp

As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61 successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could create a correction from here.
That is why we prefer to wait for a break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28, which would be an important test if it happens.

Sensex Ends Below 16K Mar, Down By 156.44 Points

ndian equities closed the week on a lower note on Friday after losing 156.44 points owing to continued selling pressure witnessed in heavy weights.
Auto, banking, metal and real estate stocks gained, while oil & gas, teck and power counters trended lower.
For the week ended Oct 17, wholesale price index (WPI) inflation continued to climb at 1.51% on pricier food items as compared to 1.21% during the week ago.

oday's Forex Strategy

JPY crosses reversing higher again after better than expected US growth data. USD backs off as well.

Recent moves likely to climax between now and Monday with end of month trade behind us at week-end.

Read more

SBP predicts 2.5 to 3.5 percent growth rate

Pakistan’s economy is showing a gradual recovery and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be close to the target of 3.3 percent during the current fiscal year (2009-10), according to State Bank’s Annual Report on State of the Economy for the year 2008-09 released Thursday. Read more...

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Intervention Fears Set Brazilian Real Down

The Brazilian real, ranking among the best performers in currency markets this year with the Australian and New Zealand dollar, experienced another day of losses as the government may take further action to halt the current national currency rally. The Brazilian real suffered another day of pessimism as speculations suggest that the national central bank could be ready to take further measures, after setting a tax for international capital inflows towards Brazilian equities markets last week, declining attractiveness for the real as fears that a good currency performance may be once synthetically halted by policy makers. USD/BRL traded at 1.7205 as of 21:25 GMT from an opening rate of 1.7178 today.

Pound Pares Losses After Exaggerated Rally

The pound reverted its losing trend from last week�s end, specially versus the euro, as traders interpreted the winning streak as inadequate, as U.K. could be starting its first signs of economic recovery. The pound has been facing extreme volatility as investors remain confused regarding the directions it may take in currency markets, considering the actual conjecture of the British financial scenario. Today, the pound rose specially versus the euro, as even if the U.K. posted negative growth numbers last week, analysts suggest that next quarter will bring back optimism towards the United Kingdom�s economy. EUR/GBP traded at 0.9109 as of 21:45 GMT from a previous rate of 0.9235 yesterday.

Karachi Stock Exchange

K.S.E. Indices

KSE 30 INDEX

KSE 100 INDEX

ALL SHARE INDEX

Current

9770.23

9247.78

6577.75

High

10126.37

9569.07

6798.31

Low

9747.16

9232.18

6568.97

Change

-356.14

-321.29

-220.56

Volume

134,624,775

177,517,995

204,289,220

Value

8,287,126,946.31

8,890,268,828.76

9,267,451,454.82

KSE 100 INDEX

Exchange Statistics

Trades

118,312

Advance

77

Decline

305

Unchanged

18

Total

400

Exchange Volume

206,284,720

Exchange Value

9,456,410,894.82

Market Statistics

Regular (Suspend)

Trades : 117,190

Volume : 204,289,220

Value : 9,267,451,454.82

CFS (Loaded)

Trades : 0

Volume : 0

Value : 0.00

Square Up (OpenClose)

Trades : 4

Volume : 11,461

Value : 336,251.48

Odd Lot ( )

Trades :

Volume :

Value :

CSF (Suspend)

Trades : 0

Volume : 0

Value : 0.00

Future (Suspend)

Trades : 1,122

Volume : 1,995,500

Value : 188,959,440.00

IPO (Suspend)

Trades : 0

Volume : 0

Value : 0.00

K.S.E. Top Symbols

Symbol Bid Vol. Bid Price Offer Price Offer Vol. Last Rate Change Total Vol.

Pak.PTA Ltd. 13,000 6.00 6.02 2,018 6.02

0.15

24,736,388

Arif Habib Sec. 124,288 51.90 51.99 46,089 51.44

1.07

22,965,698

Jah.Sidd. Co. 0 0.00 37.11 448,646 37.14

-1.92

17,226,568

Fauji Fert Bin Qasim 26,955 26.75 26.78 14,350 26.83

-0.08

14,466,167

Bank Al-Falah 10,500 14.15 14.16 25,000 14.09

-0.56

13,096,641

D.G.K.Cement 0 0.00 30.07 285,036 30.07

-1.58

7,829,034

P.T.C.L.A 9,060 19.41 19.50 10,000 19.50

-0.93

7,011,905

National Bank of Pak 12,120 82.30 82.44 1,000 81.95

-3.39

5,514,212

Lucky Cement XD 0 0.00 67.42 294,513 67.42

-3.54

5,449,756

Oil and Gas Deve.XD 790 104.61 104.65 1,175 104.78

-3.39

5,050,993

Netsol Technol. 1,400 33.69 33.70 4,260 33.42

0.98

5,007,874

Azgard Nine Ltd. 0 0.00 25.08 65,298 25.08

-1.32

4,173,334

Pak Petroleum Ltd. 6,462 177.06 177.25 4,950 177.32

-7.53

4,124,059

NIB Bank 176 5.45 5.47 19,800 5.43

-0.30

4,047,118

United Bank Ltd. 5,500 61.75 61.94 1,000 62.17

-1.37

3,937,411

Hub Power Co. 1,696 30.80 31.00 2,750 31.01

-1.21

2,985,981

Engro Chem.Pak 290 164.25 164.49 1,723 164.26

-8.40

2,876,272

Pak OilfieldsXD 7,426 203.50 203.75 1,000 203.18

-9.39

2,751,513

Adamjee Insur XD 100 108.94 108.98 15 108.95

-2.81

2,556,337

Nishat Mills SPOT 0 0.00 0.00 0 61.11

-3.04

2,222,333

Engro Polymer 1 20.51 20.56 1,600 20.52

-1.06

2,069,534

TRG Pakistan Ltd. 80,861 2.10 2.12 990 2.13

-0.04

2,043,382

MCB Bank Limited 2,290 208.52 208.70 2,700 208.91

-10.23

2,037,230

Pak Reinsurance 7,113 30.05 30.15 7,636 30.02

-1.55

1,956,892

Faysal Bank Ltd. 23,880 17.30 17.34 200 17.24

-0.51

1,764,322

Askari Bank Ltd. 10,000 24.82 24.88 3,673 24.84

-0.90

1,654,936

Habib Bank Ltd 4,000 128.40 128.50 5,975 128.81

-1.62

1,538,653

Pace (Pak) Ltd. 560 6.61 6.66 500 6.62

-0.30

1,535,235

B.O.Punjab 10 14.23 14.25 19,962 14.30

-0.67

1,526,842

Fauji Fertilizer Co. 1,000 102.91 102.98 1,500 102.94

-1.18

1,518,834

Oil rises above $80 as earnings beat expectations

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose above $80 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, extending a two-week rally as better than expected US corporate earnings boosted investor confidence. Benchmark crude for November delivery rose as much as 44 cents to $80.05 a barrel but later fell back and was up 20 cents at $79.81 by midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.08 to settle at $79.61 on Monday. Crude reached $80 for the first time this year after Apple Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. reported third quarter earnings Monday that beat analyst forecasts. Caterpillar Inc., Coca-Cola Co. and DuPont are scheduled to report later Tuesday. "Earnings have been fairly positive and everyone is looking for positives right now," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director for market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. Crude demand has remained sluggish this year as the global economy recovers from recession. With the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at near zero percent, investors have flocked to stocks and commodities to make money. "This rally isnt based on fundamentals. Its about risk appetite," Kornafel said. "Money is looking for some kind of return." In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 0.62 cent to $2.03 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery slipped 0.48 cent to $1.97 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery jumped 6.2 cents to $4.84 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude for December delivery rose 31 cents to $78.08 on the ICE Futures exchange.

EUR/USD pulls down to 1.5000 on a late downside rally in stocks

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – U.S. markets tumbled in the last hour of trading and lost previous gains and ended in the negative side. The Dow Jones lost 0.92% and finished below 10,000. Falling stocks helped Dollar move away from the lows of the days across the board but still remains at the lowest level in 14 months.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.5046 (14-month high) and from there fall quickly to test levels below 1.5000. The pair is now hovering around 1.5000, 0.45% above today’s opening price. If the pair falls further the next support lies at 1.4980 and below at 1.4955/50.

The ecPulse.com analysis team affirms: “Despite optimism spread within overall markets due to cheerful earnings posted today from huge and known U.S corporations; having in fact Yahoo! Inc. and Morgan Stanley witnessing better-than forecasted results throughout their third-quarter, the U.S stocks end up in a red zone after that Wells Fargo & Co. after analyst Dick Bove downgraded Wells Fargo shares and signaled that the better than expected profits were a result of hedging gains rather than increased activity in businesses.”

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price.

Pakistan Forex Scandal Update

Will the Dollar Rebound Before 2009 Ends?

The dollar had one of the best weekly performance in months gaining versus most of the 16 main traded currencies as the Group of 7 suggested that a strong greenback is important to guarantee a fast and sustainable world economic recovery.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Yesterday's drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called "the most important support" 89.31 (yesterday's low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short
-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt).

If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over.

Gold Darts Past $950/oz in the Wake of Positive Data

The EUR/USD broke out to the upside after positive PMI data, and gold responded. Theprecious metal rode past our 3rd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines on its way to $950/oz. However, Gold’s rally is pausing after better than expected U. S. Existing Home Sales data caused the Dollar to appreciate. Gold is not quite sure which direction to head in with the Dollar appreciating and the S&P futures setting fresh 2009 highs.

Hence, the precious metal is in a correlative flux. Regardless, today’s movement is certainlypositive and shows gold is still in a medium-term uptrend despite recent weakness. That being said, the precious metal must deal with a couple strong technical obstacles to the topside.

Forex: EUR/USD: Expect a burst higher to 1.4600 or, eventually, 1.5000 - Mizuho

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro has been trading in a tiny range from 1.4370 to 1.4400 after it rally from 1.4100 was capped at 1.4445 year high, however, according to Nicole Elliott, technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank, the Euro could explore higher levels before the end of the week.Elliott affirms that the Euro is not overbought and that the pair could burst higher: "Surprisingly the Euro is not overbought so expect another burst higher hopefully by the end of this week."On its way up, the Euro could hit levels around 1.4600 or even 1.5000, says Elliott: "Our measured targets are 1.4600 and eventually the psychological 1.5000."

Forex: GBP/USD: Pound needs a corrective dip to 1.6800 - DailyFX

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Pound has risen to 2009 highs at 1.7000 from levels around 1.6400, to enter on a flat trading range from 1.6900 to 1.7000 and, according to the Daily FX Research Team, the pair could move down before going higher.Sterling is overbought on intra-day studies, says the Daily FX Research Team, and a dip towards 1.6800 is needed: "The overbought intraday studies are the primary catalyst here, with the daily ATR also well exceeded. We will hold the position into to the close and look to reassess. There is definitely the need for a material corrective pullback towards 1.6800 at a minimum over the coming hours."

Forex: AUD/USD: Aussie losses strength after hitting 0.8470 10 mth. high

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Australian Dollar rally from Jul 13 low at 0.7700 reached its peak on Tuesday at 0.8470, the highest level since late September, and the pair has remained consolidating at levels above 0.8385 ever since.According to the E-Forex Team, Australian Dollar rally has lost strength, and intra.day momentum turned to negative: "Intra-day momentum is losing strength and became negative, favoring further downside price action towards the first support eyed at .8385 then lower, at .8330 which initially served as resistance."Aas long as potential correction holds above 0.8300, says the E-Forex Team, the pair would be prone to test new highs: "As long as the Aussie dollar holds gains above .8300, short-term momentum will remain intact and a corrective cycle would provide new buying opportunities."

Forex: GBP/USD: Pound needs a corrective dip to 1.6800 - DailyFX

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Pound has risen to 2009 highs at 1.7000 from levels around 1.6400, to enter on a flat trading range from 1.6900 to 1.7000 and, according to the Daily FX Research Team, the pair could move down before going higher.Sterling is overbought on intra-day studies, says the Daily FX Research Team, and a dip towards 1.6800 is needed: "The overbought intraday studies are the primary catalyst here, with the daily ATR also well exceeded. We will hold the position into to the close and look to reassess. There is definitely the need for a material corrective pullback towards 1.6800 at a minimum over the coming hours."

Germany Purchasing Manager Index Services rises to 48.1 in Jul from 45.2 in Jun

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.

EU Purchasing Manager Index Services up to 45.7 in Jul from 44.7 Jul

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.

Euro Zone Services PMI's slightly above forecasts; Euro unchanged

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Euro Zone services PMI Index has risen to 45.7 in July from 44.7 in June, somewhat above the 45.6 reading forecasted by market analysts, while German services PMI rose from 45.2 to 48.1 in July.The Euro has not been affected by the improvement in services sector´s Activity, and the pair moves right in the middle of the 1.4370 to 1.4430 range.

DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Output Decline Eases Further In July

DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Output Decline Eases Further In July By Nicholas Winning Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--The contraction in euro-zone economic output eased more than expected in July to its weakest rate for 11 months, another sign that the severe slump in the 16-nation currency area is bottoming out, data from Markit Economics showed Wednesday. The final reading of the euro-zone composite output index -a closely-watched gauge of economic activity -rose to 47.0 in July from 44.6 in June. Nevertheless, it remained below the neutral 50.0 level, indicating that output has contracted for a 14th consecutive month. A reading below 50 indicates a drop in output while a reading above indicates an expansion. Markit also said the services business activity index rose to a 10-month high of 45.7 in July from 44.7 in June. On Monday it said the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector had recovered to an 11-month high of 46.3 in July from 42.6 in June. Economists were expecting the composite measure to increase to 46.8 in July, in line with the flash estimate, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists last week. -By Nicholas Winning, Dow Jones Newswires, +44 207 842 9498; nick.winning@dowjones.co -0-
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 04:24 ET (08:24 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services rise to 53.2 in Jul vs 51.6 in Jun

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.

United Kingdom Manufacturing Production rises 0.4% in Jun; 11.7% down on year

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.

DATA SNAP: UK July Services PMI 53.2 Vs 51.6 In June

DATA SNAP: UK July Services PMI 53.2 Vs 51.6 In June
By Ilona Billington
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The U.K.'s dominant services sector expanded for the second straight month in July, with the Purchasing Managers Index for the sector rising to a 17-month high. Research group Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply Wednesday said the services PMI rose to 53.2 in July from 51.6 in June. The size of the increase came as a surprise as economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week had forecast the PMI would increase to just 52.0. A reading above 50.0 indicates the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50.0 indicates it is contracting. -By Ilona Billington and Nicholas Winning, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9452; ilona.billington@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 04:39 ET (08:39 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc

United Kingdom Industrial Production rises 0.5% in jun; -11.1% on year

United Kingdom Industrial Production rises 0.5% in jun; -11.1% on year

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UK services sector's activity has expanded in July for second consecutive month, while industrial production posted the lar

CURRENCIES: Dollar Slips Vs. Rivals In Asian Trading By Lisa Twaronite The dollar edged down against major counterparts in Asian trading Wednesday, as investors awaited U.S. employment data. One dollar bought 95.01, down from 95.25 yen in late North American trading on Tuesday. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 77.671, down from 77.720 late Tuesday. "Major currencies remain vulnerable to risk on/off in sympathy of cyclical recovery expectations," said Tomoko Fujii, a rates and currency strategist at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Japan. "Wednesday's focus should be the U.S. ADP employment survey results, which should offer indications of Friday's official nonfarm payroll jobs data," she said in emailed comments. The euro was buying $1.4404, up from $1.4399 late Tuesday, and the British pound was at $1.6977, up from $1.6932. The Aussie dollar was buying 84.23 U.S. cents, up from 84.15 U.S. cents Tuesday, when the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy cash rate steady at 3.0% and abandoned its easing bias. Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 04:43 ET (08:43 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Forex: GBP/USD: Pound tests 1.7000 after upbeating UK data

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UK services sector's activity has expanded in July for second consecutive month, while industrial production posted the largest monthly improvement since October 2007; The Pound rose to test 1.7000 resistance.GBP/USD has risen from levels around 1.6950 before uk manufacturing and services data, to test 1.7000 psychological resistance, reaching an intra-day high at 1.7008, although, so far, the Pound has failed to hold above 1.7000.UK services PMI has risen to 53.2 level in July, from 51.6 in June, the second consecutive month at expansion levels, and the highest level in 17 months.UK manufacturing activity was also brighter than expected. Manufacturing Output rose 0.4% month on month, the largest increase since January 08, and Industrial output increased 0.5% on the month, the largest increase since October 07. Year on year Manufacturing output fell 11.7%, while Industrial production fell 11.1%

Currency Rates Of Coffee Producing, Consuming Countries

Currency Rates Of Coffee Producing, Consuming Countries
LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. dollar exchange rates as of 09:45 GMT August 5, compared with 09:18 GMT August 4.

Producers:
05/08/09 (04/08/09) Angolan Kwanza AON 77.805 (77.805) Bolivian Boliviano BOB 7.02 (7.02) Brazil Real BRL 1.8168 (1.825) Burundi Franc BIF 1216.05 (1216.05) *CFA Franc XOF 455.15 (455.15) Colombian Peso COP 2044.5 (2009.5) Costa Rican Colon CRC 585.95 (585.95) Cuban Peso CUP 0 (0) Dominican Republic DOP 36 (36.05) Ecuadorean Sucre ECS 0 (0) El Salvador Colon SVC 8.7475 (8.7475) Ethiopian Birr ETB 11.337 (11.336) Guatemala Quetzal GTQ 8.1415 (8.1415) Guinea Franc GNS 4848.15 (4895.8) Haiti Gourde HTG 40.25 (40.25) Honduras Lempira HNL 18.925 (18.925) Indian Rupee INR 47.625 (47.635) Indonesian Rupiah IDR 9920 (9880) Kenyan Shilling KES 76.25 (76.35) Malawi Kwacha MWK 143.05 (142.05) Mexican Peso MXN 13.145 (13.132) Nicaragua Cordoba NIC 19.8815 (19.872) Papua New Guinea Kina PGK 2.635 (2.6261) Peruvian New Sol PES 2.97337 (2.98628) Philippines Peso PHP 47.835 (47.785) Venezuelan Bolivar VEB 0 (0) Vietnam Dong VND 17815 (17815) Zambian Kwacha ZMK 5075.5 (5075.5) Zimbabwe Dollar ZWD 365.4 (365.4025) CONSUMERS: Danish Krone DKK 5.1749 (5.1728) #Euro EUR 1.4391 (1.4395) Japanese Yen JPY 95.185 (94.835) Norwegian Krone NOK 6.0323 (6.046) Swedish Krona SEK 7.1385 (7.1543) Swiss Franc CHF 1.0626 (1.0612) * = The CFA Franc is the common currency of 14 African countries which are members of the Franc zone: XOF = Benin, Burkina, Ivory Coast, Guinnea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo under the Central Bank of the West African States. XAF = Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, under the Bank of the Central African States. # = Currencies that are quoted in U.S. dollars per unit of currency. All other currencies are quoted in units of currency per U.S. dollar. Source: OANDA Corp and yahoo.com. -By Caroline Henshaw, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9372; caroline.henshaw@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 04:46 ET (08:46 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks Flat; Data To Set Direction

EUR/USD (Aug 05 at 09:47 GMT)
1.4392/94 (-0.04%)
H 1.4426 L 1.4365

GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks Flat; Data To Set Direction

GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks Flat; Data To Set Direction

By Ishaq Siddiqi
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--European stock markets have floated around the flat-line Wednesday, with investors dissecting the latest corporate results for clues about the extent of the economic recovery. "The market is pausing for breath, awaiting further direction. Traders have taken money off the table but are poised to get back in if the market breaks one way or the other," said Manoj Ladwa, trader at ETX Capital. At 0830 GMT, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index was up 0.1% at 228.10, while London's FTSE 100 index was down 0.2% to 4565.51, Frankfurt's DAX index was down 0.4% at 5395.7, and the CAC-40 index in Paris was 0.1% higher at 3482.7. The next few days are likely to be important in terms of giving the market a guide to the next direction, given the key economic data pieces scheduled for release. The U.S. ADP employment data Wednesday at 1215 GMT will offer a gauge at the current state of the U.S. labor market ahead of Friday's key U.S. nonfarm payrolls figure for July . "A less downbeat ADP employment survey could temper profit-taking in stocks ahead of nonfarm payrolls," said Kenneth Broux, market economist at Lloyds Banking Group. Also, Thursday's main economic agenda will be set around the policy meetings by the Bank of England and European Central Bank. "If these (data pieces) are all benign and we continue to get good earnings results then I think the market will continue its upward trend," added Ladwa. And there is no denying that there is value in the market, said Owen Ireland, sales broker at ODL Securities, "but many investors need to be aware that the markets have recovered eerily quickly considering the quagmire we were in less than a year ago." On the corporate front, banking stocks were in vogue again following earnings from France's Societe Generale SA (GLE.FR) and the U.K's Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG). Societe Generale returned to profit in the second quarter as revenues almost doubled at its corporate and investment banking unit. But Lloyds Banking Group reported that loan impairments rose more than five-fold in the first six months of the year. Still, shares in Lloyds pushed 5.6% higher, after it said it expected loan impairment charges to come down significantly from GBP13.4 billion in the first half. Shares in Societe Generale shares were 5.1% higher, and the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 banks index added 0.9%. On Wall Street Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 33.63 points, or 0.4%, to 9320.19, marking its fourth straight day higher and the Standard & Poor's 500 tacked on 3.02, or 0.3%, to 1005.65. Still, Asian stock markets edged lower Wednesday with investors wary about whether recent upwards momentum can be sustained. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.2% lower, South Korea's Kospi Composite ended down 0.4% and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed 1.4% lower. "Players are worried that markets are becoming increasingly immune to positive cues, while any negative cues may trigger profit-taking," said Investrust CEO Hiroyuki Fukunaga. In foreign exchange markets, investors seemed to continue the previous session's trend of profit taking amid subdued equities, said Ashley Davies at UBS, and "the EUR/USD pair has hugged the $1.4400 level fairly precariously." At 0910 GMT, the euro stood at $1.4387, while sterling stood at $1.6981. The dollar traded at Y95.16. Elsewhere, spot gold was trading at $963.50 per troy ounce, around $2 below its close in New York. The front-month September Nymex crude oil futures contract was also a touch lower as trading entered a lull ahead of data expected to show a growing oil surplus. At 0910 GMT, the contract stood 43 cents lower at $70.99 a barrel on Globex, after settling at $71.42 a barrel, down 16 cents. Analysts expect oil inventories to rise by 500,000 barrels in the week ended July 31, while distillate stocks are seen increasing by 900,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey, with the data from the U.S. Department of Energy due at 1430 GMT. Meanwhile, European government bonds are marginally weaker Wednesday, steadying after Tuesday's late price sell off following stronger-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data. At 0910 GMT, the September bund contract stood at 121.57, 0.02 higher. -By Ishaq Siddiqi, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9488; ishaq.siddiqi@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 05:15 ET (09:15 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

European stocks mixed; Euro and Pound, rangebound

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - European markets are mixed at very low levels the first hours of trading on Wednesday, as investors assimilate the latest string of quarterly earnings to make assessments about the pace of economic recovery: Euro and Pound remain floating within tight ranges.Eurostoxx 50 Index remains practically unchanged two hours after the opening bell, while German Dax Index drops 0.27%, and French CAC Index trades 0.27% above its opening level. In the UK, the FTSE Index sheds 0.21%.On the macroeconomic domain, Eurozone and Germany's services sector's activity has continued contracting in July, although at a substantially slower pace than in previous months, while UK services sector's activity grew for its second consecutive time.Following with UK, manufacturing activity rose 0.4% month on month in June, the largest increase since January 08, and Industrial output increased 0.5% on the month, the largest increase since October 07. Year on year Manufacturing output fell 11.7%, while Industrial production fell 11.1%.Euro and Pound remain trading in rangeGBP/USD launched an attack to the 1.7000 resistance level after UK manufacturing and services data was released, although the Pound turne3d down after hitting a fresh intra-day high at 1.7008.EUR/USD remains trading in a range from 1.4370 to 1.4430. The Euro picked up on early European session but turned down at 1.4400 after disappointing EU retail sales data, and trades around 1.4385 at the moment of writing.USD/JPY decline from 95.40 Asian session high find support at 94.87 ahead of the European session opening, and the Dollar rose to levels above 95.00, reaching 95.15 at the time of writing

Polish Labor Minister Sees July Unemployment Rate At 10.8%

Polish Labor Minister Sees July Unemployment Rate At 10.8% WARSAW (Dow Jones)--Poland's unemployment rate rose slightly in July to 10.8% from 10.78% in June, Polish Labor Minister Jolanta Fedak said Wednesday The Central Statistics Office, or GUS, is due to issue official July unemployment data at the end of August.
Labor ministry website: www.mps.gov.pl
-By Marynia Kruk, Dow Jones Newswires; 48-22 447-2430; marynia.kruk@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 05:27 ET (09:27 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc

UPDATE: Euro-Zone Economic Output Slump Eases Further In July

UPDATE: Euro-Zone Economic Output Slump Eases Further In July (Adds data, Markit and economist comment) By Nicholas Winning Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--The contraction in euro-zone economic output eased to its weakest rate for 11 months in July, fueling hopes that the 16-nation currency area could emerge from recession before the end of the year, data from Markit Economics showed Wednesday. The final reading of the euro-zone composite output index -a closely-watched gauge of economic activity -rose to 47.0 in July from 44.6 in June. The headline figure, which combines both the manufacturing and services sectors, remained below the neutral 50.0 level, indicating that output has contracted for a 14th consecutive month. A reading below 50 indicates a drop in output while a reading above indicates an expansion. But it was higher than the flash July reading and the market consensus estimate of 46.8 from a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists. "This will raise hopes that the euro-zone economy could stabilise in the second half of the year, led by manufacturing, where production recorded only a marginal fall in July," Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said in a statement. "Services continue to lag, however, largely due to weak domestic consumption as employment continued to fall, which will most likely act as a drag on any recovery," added Williamson. Markit said the services business activity index rose to a nine-month high of 45.7 in July from 44.7 in June -beating economists' expectations of 45.6. The purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector which recovered to an 11-month high of 46.3 in July from 42.6 in June. "To put this level of the composite PMI into context, it is consistent with gross domestic product contracting by around a quarter of a percentage point quarter-on-quarter on the basis of past relationships," Ken Wattret, an economist at BNP Paribas, said in a note. Euro-zone GDP posted a record 2.5% quarterly contraction between January and March. On an annual basis, GDP fell 4.9% in the first quarter. Germany saw the weakest drop in output of the big four euro nations in July following a record jump in its composite index to its highest rate since September. By contrast, France saw an increased rate of decline in July following four straight months of easing. Euro-zone employment continued to fall, but at the weakest rate since January, Markit said. Manufacturing continued to report a steeper rate of job cuts than in the services sector. Incoming new business posted the smallest deterioration since last August. Rates of decline slowed sharply in Germany and Italy and eased marginally in Spain, but France saw a slight increase in the rate of loss of new business. -By Nicholas Winning, Dow Jones Newswires, +44 207 842 9498; nick.winning@dowjones.co Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 05:29 ET (09:29 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc

ECB Allots $40.236 B In TAF 7-Day Tender At 1.16%

ECB Allots $40.236 B In TAF 7-Day Tender At 1.16% FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank Wednesday allotted $40.236 billion in funds to the banking system through a seven-day term auction facility. The funds were allotted at a fixed rate of 1.16%. As in previous auctions, the ECB satisfied all bids. There were eight bidders. The tender will be settled Thursday and the funds mature Aug. 13. Web site: http://www.ecb.int -By Geoffrey T. Smith, Dow Jones Newswires; (+49 69) 29725-520; geoffrey.smith@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=py6XKysBWxRFQBX8LswcYA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 05, 2009 05:39 ET (09:39 GMT)Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc

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Growing interregional trade by inland waterways

Waterways are considered cost effective conduits of transporting goods across the border. A country having seaport has a clear competitive advantage over others without the facility because of its ability to keep cost of logistics in overall cost of production low. Seldom landlocked countries rubbish the vital relationship with their neighbouring nations to connect to the world through this natural channel on seas. Inland waterways are yet another added advantage that can be a blessing for any nation's economy with adequate web of rivers and canals since they provide economical and eco-friendly substitutes of on-air and on-ground media of transportation.
The water-supported transportation is widely used in several developed countries which are utilizing the facility to not only carry forward the cargoes from one place to another within the national border, but also to facilitate public commuting. President Zardari says inland waterways are needed to relieve the burden of roads and railways. During a meeting to discuss the workings of the National Trade Corridor and Improvement programme, he proposed inland waterways for building trade competitiveness of the country. He timely states that Pakistan's strategic location 'at the cross-road of Central Asian Republics' holds benefits for promoting inter-regional trade, adding this asset should be fully exploited through improving infrastructure, roads and railways networks.
Pakistan's importance in world trade logistics is built up due to the country's three established sea ports-two among them are deep-sea, giving outreach to many resources-rich markets. This would further be armoured if trade passages continue to be expansionary and provide unhindered middle ways to international trade. President's emphasize on rejuvenating trade corridors is seen as exhilarating addendum to tripartite moot attended by Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan in which it was decided that development of infrastructure connectivity among three countries would be revitalized and enhanced.
Be that as it may, proposed improving connectivity through highways and railways networks would not reconcile in the proposal inland waterways as workable transportation route, though the meeting was told that a task force had been made in this regard. With the efforts of limiting expenditures at par with existing financial resources, government of Pakistan may have been careful in initiating capital-intensive project. It has enshrined private sector participation in national trade corridor improvement programme aimed at to revamp all trade and logistics facilities from highways and railways to customs and cargoes handling at ports. The purpose is to boost quality of goods by mitigating flaws in delivery system and reducing travelling time.
Due to the requirement of continuous funding in the improvement and institutional advisory services for resolving the technical problems, government ought not to circumvent cooperation of other stakeholders including private sector, which is the main beneficiary of appropriate logistics services. Having had longstanding infrastructure weaknesses of roads and railways systems and insufficient highways, Pakistan needs coherent policy and regular funds to shape in valuable trade corridor that opens up new ways to global trade. As far as Pakistan is concerned, additional outlays for establishing thoroughfare are tantamount to increased budget deficit. In the face of financial stiffness, government can expedite the improvement works with the external financial backup. Funding by international financial institutions is sizeable but is customary with an obligation of repayment that bulge government debt-servicing account. Therefore, government seeks private sector participation.
According to the Planning Commission, National Trade Corridor Improvement programme has become a medium term transport master plan for the country since the programme was conceived in 2005. Pakistan has been sanctioned a soft loan of $25 million for simplification and modernization of trade practices and procedures by the World Bank. While the interest rate is charged at 0.75%, under the agreement 70% of the credit is grant. The approved trade and transport facilitation project-2 will give impetus to industrialization. Planning Commission through National Trade Corridor Management Unit would monitor the implementation of the project, closing date of which is 2013.
Although, the cost of functionalizing inland waterways will take no precedence, it can become a onetime investment to bring about substitutes over high cost of transportations on roads and railways. A policy framework should be deigned to include in the trade corridor project building of inland waterways. Apart from construction of roads and railways, which have existing infrastructure, making inland waterways operational for trade logistics will demand both substantial capital and other essential ancillaries. To start up, water flows in rivers upcountry can be used for ferry services. Low riparian areas will remain out until water flows are increased sufficiently to permit traffics especially of big cruises. In unorganized manner, people in different part of the country run ferries. However, they are practicing conventional ways of earning livelihoods and far from being instrumental to transportation of industrial goods via water channels.
So far, only rural population living alongside rivers and canals are making use of fuel-saving travelling on waterways. In transportation of industrial goods from one place to another, this usage is perhaps imperceptible. Besides, government needs to carve out new waterlines in between manufacturing industries and outsourcings. Firstly, this link would scale the transportation costs down significantly. Moreover, most importantly it would ensure hassle free movement of goods. While the present map of Pakistan does not chime in with the pre-71 cobweb of waterlines in the eastern part, it is yet to realign inland waterways to accelerate trade activities. A serious effort is indispensable to shift traffic overloads from roads and railways to inland waterways in order to get economic advantages and grow interregional trade.

Orexigen Obesity Drug Trials Successful in 3 Studies

Orexigen Therapeutics Inc. said Monday that in three large late-stage studies its obesity-drug candidate Contrave met its main goals and also surpassed a Food and Drug Administration requirement for effectiveness. The San Diego-based company said it plans to seek FDA approval for Contrave in early 2010.

EMCO sells its arm to GMR Energy

Thane-headquartered EMCO Limited has informed that it has sold its wholly owned subsidiary EMCO Energy Limited to GMR Energy Limited, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure Limited.

At present, EMCO Energy is in the process of implementing 300 MW thermal power project (Phase 1) at Warora, Maharashtra, as part of the Group's power generation strategy.

CRISIL Risk and Infrastructure Solutions Limited acted as advisors to EMCO Limited for this transaction.

The share of EMCO closed on Friday at Rs 86, while scrip of GMR Infrastructure settled the day at Rs 141 on BSE.

US Dollar on the Brink of a Trend Defining Plunge Ahead of 2Q GDP

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist
It was a tenuous week; but the dollar was able to ultimately hold its own through the close. However, just because momentum behind the earnings-driven rally in risk appetite has stalled does not mean that the world’s most liquid currency has avoided a collapse all together.




US Dollar on the Brink of a Trend Defining Plunge Ahead of 2Q GDP

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bearish

- Fundamentals support a recovery in US and global growth, but how does risk appetite factor in?
- Bernanke sees signs of stabilization, calls focus on the deficit
- Do technicals call for a dollar collapse or recovery?

It was a tenuous week; but the dollar was able to ultimately hold its own through the close. However, just because momentum behind the earnings-driven rally in risk appetite has stalled does not mean that the world’s most liquid currency has avoided a collapse all together. Sentiment winds have died down; but they can easily jostle the safe-haven dollar should another economic catalyst surface. This makes for an uncertain future when combined with the fundamental influence that the 2Q GDP report will have on the currency. Now, not only do traders have to interpret the data, they will also have to judge whether it has a greater impact on risk appetite or growth considerations for the beleaguered dollar.

Looking ahead to next week, the most immediate threat to the greenback’s stability is the intensity and direction of risk appetite. While this currency is deeply mired in speculation surrounding the economy’s leading or lagging growth potential, interest rate expectations, and deficit projections among other influences; risk appetite has proven itself to be insuperable. With the Federal Reserve vowing to keep the benchmark lending rate at levels that insure a carry status when conditions do turn around and politicians ensuring the economy will struggle with record levels of debt for years to come, there seems little doubt that the dollar will maintain its position on the opposite of risk appetite. But, considering the stalled progress most of the dollar and yen crosses saw last week; is there a strong shift in sentiment in the works? With EURUSD and GBPUSD just off of key levels of resistance, the pressure is growing. However, the primary source of momentum this past week – the second quarter earnings season – is already on the decline. If left up to the markets alone, equities have already forged new highs for the year; but commodities, fixed income and risk-sensitive currency pairs have not pushed to comparable levels. Oddly enough, one of the most likely catalysts for risk going forward also happens to be the most attention grabbing indicator on the US docket: GDP.

According to economists forecasts, the world’s largest economy contracted at a 1.5 percent on an annualized pace through the second quarter. This would be a marked improvement from the 5.5 percent and 6.3 percent rate of the recession through the first quarter of 2009 and fourth quarter 2008 respectively. This would certainly confirm policy officials expectations for a return to positive growth by the end of this year or beginning of the next; but through the near-term it is still a call for speculation to rank the economy’s performance against that of its major counterparts. China recently reported a sharp advance to a 7.9 percent pace of expansion while the UK printed a record 5.6 percent contraction. And, then there are still those economies that have yet to report their numbers. Japan suffered a record-breaking 14.2 percent slump through the first quarter, but is expected to snap back according to BoJ and Cabinet officials. The Euro Zone awaits it August 13th release, but the Bundesbank has already stated Germany saw only a ‘slight contraction’ through the second quarter. This will increasingly become a consideration of nuance.

The other facet of the US 2Q GDP release is that it will be accepted as a gauge of global growth. This further complicates the issue. Should the reading be good, the influence on risk appetite could outweigh the implications for US returns and actually drag the dollar down; and vice versa. Another important consideration is the timing of this release. Due Friday, speculators may decide to move the dollar before the data crosses the wires. If this is the case, the GDP report could factor into long-term projections but not short-term volatility. –JK

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Short-term Technical Analysis

Cross Spot level Previous day move (in pips) Supp. Res. Daily target

USD/CHF 1.0729 0.0080 1.0715 1.0780
Daily chart 1.0655 1.0800
Short-term chart 1.0620 1.0860
Comments
As expected, yesterday proved to be a day of range trading on the dollar. The USD/CHF edged up to 1.0769 before US figures were published and then dipped back down to its support zone at 1.0634. Market activity is likely to be stable as we head into the weekend. We remain neutral on the pair and expect to be trading in a range between 1.0600 and 1.0750.

EUR/USD 1.4175 -0.0061 1.4115 1.4215
Daily chart 1.4095 1.4265
Short-term chart 1.4050 1.4290
Comments
Yesterday’s trading saw the EUR/USD seesaw between a low of 1.4120 and a high of 1.4292. The publication today of Germany’s IFO business climate index and of a revised Michigan Sentiment reading in the US is unlikely to disrupt the summer tranquillity on the markets. We will be continuing to play a range between 1.4100 and 1.4250 on the EUR/USD.

USD/JPY 94.81 0.63 94.55 95.40
Daily chart 94.10 95.70
Short-term chart 93.90 95.85
Comments
The EUR/CHF cross rose back above the 1.5200 mark yesterday, on the back of significant acquisitions by Swiss companies. Volatility was considerably higher during the session, with the trading range between a low at 1.5160 and a high at 1.5244. We are expecting to close this week in a range between 1.5175 and 1.5225. We are awaiting publication this morning of the German IFO index.

EUR/CHF 1.5208 0.0045 1.5180 1.5255
Daily chart 1.5150 1.5280
Short-term chart 1.5135 1.5325
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.

GBP/USD 1.6502 0.0022 1.6455 1.6535
Daily chart 1.6430 1.6560
Short-term chart 1.6390 1.6605
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.

UK Retail

UK retail sales were up 1.2% between May and June and by 2.9% from one year before.

The latest US unemployment figures were stable, with first-time jobless claims up 554,000 from the previous week (compared to consensus forecasts of a 550,000 increase). The four-week average of new claims for unemployment benefits declined to 566,000 last week, its lowest level since January.

Also in the US, sales of previously owned homes rose by 3.6% in June to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. This notwithstanding, house prices were down 15.4% from one year before

Market news

Forex Update for July 13 2009 - The top video clips of the week are here

Forex reserves fall to $11.844 billion

KARACHI: The country's foreign exchange reserves declined to $11.844 billion on the week ending on July 18, 2009 as compared with $12.239 billion last week, data released by the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday.

Total reserves showed a decrease of $395 million during the week. However, the State Bank's reserves witnessed a major decline of $433 million to $8.428 billion, as compared to $8.861 billion last week.

The reserves held by the banks (other than SBP) witnessed an increase of $38 million to reach $3.416 billion, as compared to $3.378 billion last week. Foreign reserves had hit a record high of $16.5 billion in October 2007 but fell steadily to $6.6 billion by November of last year, largely because of a soaring import bill.

Pakistan agreed in November to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) emergency loan package of $7.6 billion to avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves. The fund recently reviewed the country's performance under the deal, and its board is set to meet next month to decide on a third loan tranche of roughly $875 million. The country has also requested about $4 billion in additional financing from the IMF as ‘insurance’ against the economic crisis. staff report

GST to be converted into VAT by July 2010: FBR

LAHORE: Chairman Federal Board of Revenue (FBR0 Suhail Ahmed has said that General Sales Tax (GST) will be converted into Value Added Tax (VAT) by July 1, 2010 with a view to bring more sectors in the tax net. He said this while talking to reporters on the occasion of his visit to Directorate of Income Tax in Lahore on Monday. Chairman FBR said the implementation of VAT will result in the additional revenue of Rs400 billion. He said the tax collection target for the current financial year is Rs380 billion and expressed confidence that it will be achieved despite economic crisis being faced by the country.

Energy Advisor presents POL price formula

ISLAMABAD: Advisor to Prime Minister for Energy Dr. Asim Hussain said Sunday that Pakistan import bill will decrease by $5 million daily as a result of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. Addressing a news conference, he said the gas pipeline project can save Pakistan $1.70 billion in annual import bill. On the occasion, Dr Asim made public the formula for determination of price of petroleum products, adding the formula is aimed at conveying in transparent manner to the people the modus operandi of price specification. He said the petrol ex-refinery price is Rs36.59/lit. He said if the current trend of international crude oil prices continues then there is a good chance of local POL prices to be reduced by Rs 3 to Rs 3.50 per litre.